Monday, April 11, 2011

Economists React: China's Trade Deficit

China eked out a small trade surplus in March, the government said, but it was still left with a $1.02 billion deficit in the first quarter, its first quarterly deficit in seven years, highlighting the impact of rising prices for imported commodities on the world's biggest exporting nation. Analysts weigh in:

The situation would look very different if commodity prices had not soared in the last 12 months. We estimate that the first quarter surplus would have been $25bn if China had paid the same price for commodity imports as it did a year ago. China's imports of key commodities last month were relatively weak in volume terms...The trade surplus has undeniably narrowed, even if the driver of the shift has not been the pick-up in consumer spending that the government has long said it wants to engineer. That means it will prove short-lived if today's commodity prices are not sustained. -- Mark Williams, Capital Economics

The headline data -- that China recorded its first quarterly trade deficit since 2004 -- may suggest some significant progress on the rebalancing agenda, but it remains far too early to make such a bold call. February's deficit was large enough to pull the whole quarter into deficit, and with March data showing a return to surplus -- albeit a rather mild one -- it is clear where the trend is going. 2011 should see a surplus of around US$ 250 billion, at around 3.5% of projected GDP, although the rather weak Q1 is indicative of the downside risks China faces internationally, and as such, the full-year surplus might be smaller than initially expected. -- Xianfang Ren and Alistair Thornton, IHS Global Insight

Trade growth will remain robust due both to the robust real economy and to rising prices, though we will see some decline in trade growth due partially to base effects. Terms of trade is getting worse for China on surging oil prices, so China's trade surplus could shrink much faster than the market has expected. Monthly deficits are still possible, but for the full year, China's trade will most likely stay in surplus (though smaller). However, we now see more downside risk to our forecast of US$150bn trade surplus in 2011. -- Lu Ting, Bank of America-Merrill Lynch

Visible impact from Japan earthquake. Growth of imports from Japan slowed down in March, even compared to Feb. Meanwhile, growth of exports to Japan held firm, recovering to stronger than pre-Feb levels. The disruptions from the quake and its aftershocks would likely continue to have similar impact in coming months. The surpluses with the US and EU both rebounded from Feb, but are both the second lowest level since last April. -- Keng Peng, Shuang Ding, Minggao Shen, and Ben Wei, Citigroup

Wednesday, April 6, 2011

C Ronaldo, Portugal joined the Spanish team for the debt?

Portugal football star Cristiano Ronaldo is to join Spain to help ease his nation's debt crisis and Britain is to begin taxing fresh air, British newspapers reported in their April Fools' Day editions.

According to the Independent broadsheet, Real Madrid winger Ronaldo has agreed to "act like a patriot" and defect to the Spanish national team, netting his debt-ravaged country 160 million euros (227 million dollars).

"Weighed down by debt...Portugal's finance ministry has secured the co-operation of football's highest-paid player in an audacious bid to draw the nation back from the brink of economic collapse," claimed the paper's lead.

Mirror reporter Flora Olip, coincidentally an anagram of April fool, revealed that the British government was to introduce a "gasp" bill to raise taxes from fresh air.

"Olip" reported that the "Air Tariff Control" system would tax areas with fresher air while more polluted cities such as London and Manchester would be due for a rebate.

The paper "cited" a senior Environment Agency technician as saying: "Air is natural but, just like water, it is a finite resource that we have to manage sensibly".

A Labour lawmaker was apparently shocked, admitting it had "literally taken his breath away".

The Daily Express joined in the fun, reporting that a British company had developed a modified Zimmer walking frame which incorporated a skateboard for pensioners who wanted something "a little more speedy".

Thursday, November 25, 2010

The Federal Reserve has moved to pump up the U.S. economy with an unconventional

Nearly a decade after Japan's central bank first experimented with the policy, the country remains mired in deflation, a general decline in wages and prices that has crippled its economy.

And just as politicians in the U.S. are criticizing the Fed for veering beyond traditional monetary policy and are threatening to curtail the bank's independence as a result, lawmakers in Japan say they'll do the same to the BOJ as punishment for its failure to cure the scourge of falling prices.

Japan's experience offers a case study in the possibilities and limits of quantitative easing, in which a central bank effectively prints money to spur economic activity.

The BOJ began doing quantitative easing in 2001. It had become clear that pushing interest rates down near zero for an extended period had failed to get the economy moving. After five years of gradually expanding its bond purchases, the bank dropped the effort in 2006.

At first, it appeared the program had succeeded in stabilizing the economy and halting the slide in prices. But deflation returned with a vengeance over the past two years, putting the Bank of Japan back on the spot.

So why didn't quantitative easing work in Japan? Critics say the Japanese central bank wasn't aggressive enough in launching and expanding its bond-buying program─then dropped it too soon. In 2006, prices had just started rising, a sign that quantitative easing was beginning to work. But some indicators were already signaling a slowdown in the economy.

Others say Japan simply waited too long to resort to the policy. Tomoya Masanao, who oversees the Japanese portfolio for bond fund giant PIMCO, points out it took the BOJ two years after Japan's consumer prices started falling to launch its bond-buying program. What's important is to do it quickly and aggressively before inflation expectations start to diminish,' Mr. Masanao says. 'It's very clear other central banks have learned this lesson well' from what happened in Japan.

U.S. inflation is now below the Fed's informal target of just under 2%, and the American central bank is trying to respond early to protect the economy from falling into outright deflation.

BOJ officials also seemed half-hearted as they launched the policy, failing to explain it sufficiently or making a strong case for public support. Confidence also eroded as the bank started and stopped various programs over the years. In 2000, for instance, the bank ended a zero-interest-rate program, only to resume it several months later when it became clear they had halted it too soon.

In the U.S., by contrast, Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke and other top officials signaled for months their plans to launch another round of bond-buying. They also have publicly defended the policy against mounting criticism─from leaders abroad, some U.S. politicians and a few of their own central bank colleagues.

Trying to defend past policy choicesBOJ officials have said quantitative easing wasn't the right tool to fight Japan's deflation, which was rooted in structural problems such as a rigid employment system that obliges companies to cut salaries for all rather than eliminate unneeded jobs.

The governor of the Bank of Japan, Masaaki Shirakawa, in a speech in Washington in October, warned the U.S. and other developed countries that their circumstances may differ from Japan's. 'Japan's 'lost decade,' ' he said, 'was crucially attributed to the decline in population and productivity.' The U.S., in contrast, has a growing population and rising productivity.

If the lesson other countries draw from Japan's experience, he said, is that 'short-term stimulative policy measures' are the only cure, then 'they will face a risk of writing the wrong policy prescription.' Maintaining what he described as 'the flexibility of the economic structure' is just as important, he said, though hard to do in the aftermath of a burst bubble.

Mr. Shirakawa also cautioned that maintaining easy monetary policy 'for an extended period' will likely yield unwelcome unintended consequences.

The BOJ remains cautious about launching any major new programs aimed at boosting the economy, which has opened the door for politicians to step up pressure on the bank. 'Every policy has its side effect,' says Yoichi Kaneko, a ruling party lawmaker leading efforts to reduce the Bank of Japan's independence. 'That's why they need to decide what's really important and pursue it vigorously.' In this case, he says, the priority is beating deflation.

Wednesday, November 24, 2010

China reacted with customary caution to North Korea's shelling of a South Korean island

China is the one country with leverage over North Korea, keeping the regime from collapse with shipments of food and energy. Yet, as one of the worst crises on the Korean peninsula since the 1950-53 Korean War unfolds, China has avoided taking sides.

Beijing even risked appearing to implicitly brush off the incident, with its state-run Xinhua news agency announcing just hours after the deadly North Korean attack that a Chinese government delegation visiting North Korea had signed a new deal on economic and trade cooperation with its neighbor.

China has already antagonized many of its Asian neighbors -- particularly Japan -- by making more assertive territorial claims in the South and East China Seas in recent months.

The U.S. and many other Western countries are growing increasingly alarmed at China's more muscular diplomacy on a range of issues, including trade, climate change and human rights. China's unwillingness to go against North Korea, even as it escalates its military belligerence, is likely to further strain its relations in a region nervous about its strategic intentions.

Stephen Bosworth, special U.S. envoy for North Korea, arrived in Beijing for emergency talks Tuesday following the weekend's revelations about North Korea has dramatically expanded its nuclear program. The Chinese government also reserved judgement on the nuclear issue, calling only for a resumption of talks between North and South Korea, China, Russia, Japan and the U.S.

'China hopes that the relevant parties will do more to contribute to peace and stability in the region,' a spokesman for the Chinese Foreign Ministry, Hong Lei, told reporters.

'It is imperative now to resume the six-party talks.'

There was a suggestion of partiality, however, when the evening news broadcast on China's main state-controlled television channel gave greater prominence to North Korea's official version of events on the shelling, which blamed South Korea for firing at it first.

Shortly afterward, Xinhua announced that a delegation led by Chinese Deputy Commerce Minister Wang Hemin had signed the new economic and trade pact in Pyongyang at the sixth meeting of the DPRK-China Intergovernmental Committee for Cooperation in Economy, Trade, Science and Technology.

The Xinhua report gave no details of the pact, and didn't mention the day's violence.

Mr. Bosworth's mission in Beijing, following talks in Seoul and Tokyo over the last two days, is to persuade China to use its clout to curb North Korea's increasingly provocative behavior.

China's political influence in the North derives mainly from the Korean War, when it sent hundreds of thousands of 'volunteers' to fight U.S.-led United Nations forces. Today, it provides much of the North's food and electricity, and is its main trading partner and military backer.

Emerging from a meeting with Yang Jiechi, China's Foreign Minister, Mr. Bosworth said he had held 'useful' talks and the two sides had agreed that a multilateral approach was needed.

However, China is unlikely to comply with any request of greater pressure on the North, according to Yang Xiyu, a former Chinese diplomat who represented China in the six-party talks in 2004-2005.

'The U.S. hopes China will put more pressure, like sanctions, on North Korea. But from China's point of view the best way to persuade North Korea is not through sanctions, but dialogue,' he said. 'The main obstacle is not the question of whether pressure is enough, but how to reduce the strategic mutual distrust between the North and South, and between North Korea and the U.S.'

Mr Yang, now a senior fellow at the state-run China Institute of International Studies, said North Korea's recent actions had 'complicated' China's efforts to restart the six-party talks.

'But that only reveals the need for patience,' he added.

China has long tried to maintain the appearance of impartiality as host of the six-party talks, which it sees as a way enhance its reputation as a responsible member of the international community.

But those efforts are now being undermined by its openly cozy relations with a North Korean government that is pushing the limits of tolerance in the South, according to many foreign diplomats and analysts. They cited China's refusal to accept the results of an international investigation which blamed North Korea for the sinking of the Cheonan, a South Korean ship, in March, with the loss of 46 lives.

This time, however, China may struggle to prevent the U.N. Security Council from censuring North Korea, as the artillery raid occurred in broad daylight, and was shown live on television.

'This is moving a lot faster than the Cheonan incident, so I would expect this goes quickly to the U.N. so China doesn't have the time to use the usual delay and water-down techniques,' said John Delury, assistant professor at Yonsei University's Graduate School of International Studies. 'Chinese diplomats are going to be looking for ways to finesse this back to negotiation in the days to come, and that's going to be hard,' he said.

An ailing Kim Jong Il, North Korea's leader, made a surprise visit to China in August -- his second this year -- to meet President Hu Jintao, who took the rare step of travelling to northeastern China, near the North Korean border, for the meeting. It was a piece of diplomatic theater that underlined the fraternal relationship between the neighbors that was forged in war and is sustained by close links between the ruling parties.

There were rumors -- never confirmed -- that Mr Kim was accompanied in China by his third and youngest son, Kim Jong Eun, who was anointed as North Korea's next leader in September.

China's primary concern isn't to prevent North Korea from developing a nuclear weapon, but to ensure that the regime there doesn't suddenly collapse, sending a flood of refugees over the border into northeastern China.

There is also a common view among Chinese experts that a strong, unified Korea represents a threat to China as it would bring to its border a key U.S. ally, and the People's Liberation Army would end up face-to-face with thousands of U.S. troops stationed in the South.

'China can't be seen as an honest broker in this process,' said Nicholas Eberstadt, an expert on North Korea at the American Enterprise Institute in Washington.

Tuesday, November 23, 2010

There is much self-congratulation in India over how well the country survived the financial crisis

Shashi Ruia, chairman of Essar Group, the oil-to-outsourcing conglomerate, is rarely seen on the public stage. But he delivered a refreshing balloon pop to, well, basically all of the above when he stood before the Hindustan Times Leadership Summit in New Delhi Friday.

India will only become a truly global country─and reap the rewards of globalization─when it is able to sell its own goods in the world marketplace, as opposed to just buying up companies worldwide.

It is not enough to produce and sell in India, he said, because “the Indian market alone won’t be enough to sustain India’s growth; we need to reach out to other markets.”

He noted that China is now the dominant foreign player in the U.S., the Nafta trade region, Australia and Japan─places east of its eastern border.

India’s opportunity to mimic that lies in the Middle East, Africa, Europe and Russia “where India has to go to occupy its rightful place,” Mr. Ruia said.

But to get there, Indian entrepreneurship won’t be enough─the nation needs to become a leader in manufacturing and infrastructure, two areas where it can learn from China.

He then rattled off a series of annualized comparisons that should be essential reading for anyone who believes India and China belong in the same class of emerging economies. Here they are:

India makes 65 million tons of steel, China makes 650 million.

China makes 11 million cars a year. India makes two million.

India-U.S. trade totals $50 billion. China-U.S. trade totals $450 billion.

Mr. Ruia found a positive spin: “It just reflects the potential for India’s growth.”

But he also complained of a lack of “national vision” needed for the industrialization that India requires.

“We need a national commitment, national management, a national resolve, a national strategy, a national belief we could do it,” he said.

Monday, November 22, 2010

Thousands of people gathered outside the charred remains of a high-rise apartment building in Shanghai

Sunday to mourn the 58 people who died last week in a fire that has triggered public criticism and resulted in a dozen arrests.

Relatives of the victims began arriving at dawn to lay flowers before portraits of the dead at an entrance to the block. By the end of the day, an estimated 10,000 people had come to pay their respects, witnesses said.

The fire swept through the 28-story building last Monday after sparks from welding equipment set alight nylon construction netting and bamboo scaffolding. Officials have blamed unlicensed welders who were fixing insulation material to meet energy-efficiency targets.
Most of the victims died inside their own homes, overcome by smoke, toxic fumes and heat. Another 71 were injured, and an unknown number of people are still unaccounted for.

Local authorities had prepared for the crowds by setting up barricades around the building and deploying dozens of volunteers as well as uniformed and plainclothes police.

'Shanghai Don't Cry: Mourn the Victims of Shanghai's Jiaozhou Road Fire,' said small black-and-white posters being handed out by young people wearing badges that identified them as volunteers.

There were no signs of protests, but many victims' relatives and others have criticized the government for responding too slowly to the fire, and failing to enforce safety standards during construction work in China's wealthiest commercial metropolis.

Criticism has been particularly intense among Chinese Internet users, especially on microblogging sites like Sina Weibo.

Central and local authorities have tried to act fast to quell public anger over the fire, which highlights the lax government oversight and poor work practices that are still rife across China's booming construction industry, despite some improvement in recent years.

The fire has raised particular concern over China's efforts to meet energy-efficiency targets by adding insulation to the outside of buildings, as the welders were doing when the fire broke out. The insulating material is supposed to be treated with fire retardant, but it is still flammable. Local authorities in Beijing, the capital, have ordered a halt to such projects, pending reviews and 'rectification' of any problems.
Luo Lin, head of the State Administration of Work Safety, has blamed the tragedy on unlicensed welders, illegal subcontracting and poor management.

Shanghai authorities have ordered fire and safety inspections throughout the city, while the central government has promised a crackdown on lax safety practices at construction sites and public areas in major cities.

Shanghai police have also detained 12 people in connection with the blaze, including four unlicensed welders, as well as project supervisors and building construction managers, according to the state-run Xinhua news agency.

In another move to appease the public, Shanghai's Communist Party chief Yu Zhengsheng, mayor Han Zheng and other senior officials joined the mourners Sunday, offering white chrysanthemums--a traditional symbol of mourning--and bowing three times before the building.

Saturday, November 20, 2010

Does Beyonce’s new perfume commercial go too far?

The spot recently aired on British TV, but has since been restricted to airings after 7:30 p.m. in the wake of complaints about its sexual imagery. (It reportedly drew 14 objections, which doesn’t sound like a whole lot to Speakeasy. It’s also unclear how many of those complaints were from disgruntled former members of Destiny’s Child.) In the commercial, for “Heat” fragrance, a glistening Beyonce who looks like she may need antiperspirant more than perfume wears a red dress with a plunging neckline, sings a sultry version of “Fever” and raises the temperature of everything she touches. In other words, it pretty much looks like every video Beyonce has ever made.